Specifically, Henry highlights three key near-term geopolitical risks: an isolated and vulnerable Iran, trouble around Turkey’s elections, and further Russian escalation of its war against Ukraine. This has happened repeatedly throughout history, especially in the past 15-20 years.Īs my Macro Hive colleague Henry Occleston wrote recently, geopolitics matters greatly, and risks remain that could drive flows into the CHF. In times of serious economic and/or geopolitical dislocation, FX investors flock to the Swiss franc for the safety of Switzerland’s status as a haven. This scenario will take EUR/CHF and GBP/CHF to the 2022 lows, with new all-time lows possible if geopolitical risks are protracted or multiply.If geopolitical risk intensifies, however, expect CHF to rally against its developed market counterparts.As most G10 FX currency pairs are rangebound, CHF pairs will probably trade within established ranges.Sign-up to receive world-class macro analysis with a daily curated newsletter, podcast, original content from award-winning researchers, cross market strategy, equity insights, trade ideas, crypto flow frameworks, academic paper summaries, explanation and analysis of market-moving events, community investor chat room, and more. This article is only available to Macro Hive subscribers. As the ultimate FX haven, the Swiss Franc (CHF) is always attractive during heightened geopolitical and economic uncertainty.Geopolitics remains a constant risk to markets.
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